Thursday, September 18, 2008

UPDATE: Election Prediction Markets

If you found my earlier post on prediction markets of interest, I highly encourage you to visit the Becker-Posner Blog. Written by two of America's biggest brains, it is probably THE most intelligent blog on the internet. This week, they have taken up the topic of Prediction Markets themselves and provide actual whole-ass analysis on the topic. This point, although obvious, was particularly salient:
One problem with prediction markets, a problem that occurred on the day of the 2004 presidential election, is that a market can swing on the basis of unreliable information until the information is corrected.
He also points to this week's silliness with United Airlines as another example. Anyway, if the topic interests you, the discussion is over there is rich, but very satisfying.

Intrade has also increased its graphical offerings.

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