Friday, September 12, 2008

Election Tipping Point?

The Intrade prediction market has broken the 50% mark on McCain for the first time. 

Half-ass analysis after the jump...

I don't know how much anyone should read into this. The graph seems to do suggest a little predicting, however. The first major dip in McCain happens on August 27th, the night Obama actually got the nod but spikes on the 28th, the night of Obama's acceptance speech, prior to the Palin announcement of the 29th. The steady climb parallels the last week of poor decision making by whoever is controlling the Democratic message and despite media pressure on Palin. I read it largely as a more volatile, near-instant opinion poll. For comparison, the Gallup daily tracking poll shows significantly less movement at significantly delayed intervals. 

What does it mean? I dunno for sure. But it certainly seems to suggest that, absent something dramatic from one side or the other, McCain can expect to continue to enjoy an improving lead into the first presidential debate in two weeks. 

UPDATE: For my fellow number freaks, I found some more tasty charts. Good stuff from on the historical trends of the Presidential market on Intrade by state and how Intrade compares to the traditional opinions polls. More cool stuff on their site, check it out.

Est. Electoral Totals:     Obama 264 / McCain 265 / Dead Heat 9

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